Flip Screener — Maximum Allowable Offer
Run this beforeyou walk the house. Set ARV and rehab, and it tells you the highest number you can pay and still make your target. Houston costs and August 2026 hard-money terms are the defaults. The only rule that matters: if the wholesaler’s price is above the MAO, you walk.
The property
Reality settings
Houston is a buyer’s market — about 60 days on market and 4.9 months of inventory. Nine months close to close, and a 95% exit, is honest. Five months at full ARV is a fantasy you pay for later.
Hard money
Exit
Their ask of $350,000 is $91,960 over your number. At that price this deal returns −$26,088. That is not a negotiation — that is the same trade that just cost you money. Counter at $258,040 and mean it.
Deal at the asking price
| Resale at 95% of ARV | $475,000 |
| Purchase | ($350,000) |
| Rehab | ($80,000) |
| Origination — 2 points | ($7,500) |
| Interest — 9 mo @ 11% | ($28,463) |
| Taxes, insurance, utilities | ($9,750) |
| Closing costs to buy | ($4,000) |
| Sale costs (self-listed) | ($21,375) |
| Net profit | −$26,088 |
| Cash out of pocket | $104,713 |
What your cash actually buys
| ARV | MAO | Cash | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| $350,000 | $154,193 | $49,764 | $75,000 |
| $450,000 | $221,836 | $66,110 | $75,000 |
| $500,000 | $258,040 | $74,389 | $75,000 |
| $600,000 | $320,919 | $90,523 | $75,000 |
| $750,000 | $424,766 | $115,148 | $75,000 |
Capital, not ambition, sets your price point. The cash needed scales with the deal — and the deepest buyer pool in Houston sits near the $332k median, which is also where a house sells fastest.
Time kills flips
| Months held | Profit | Cash needed | Lost vs. 6 mo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6 months | $85,210 | $64,215 | — |
| 7 months | $81,822 | $67,604 | $3,389 |
| 8 months | $78,433 | $70,992 | $6,777 |
| 9 months | $75,045 | $74,381 | $10,166 |
| 10 months | $71,656 | $77,769 | $13,554 |
| 12 months | $64,879 | $84,546 | $20,331 |
| 15 months | $54,714 | $94,712 | $30,497 |
Priced at your MAO, not their ask — the question is what the clock does to a deal you would actually do. Defaults: Houston hard money 9–12% plus 1–3 points, interest-only, lending to ~75% of ARV. Property tax 2%, no homestead exemption. Title and closing ~1% a side. Figures are August 2026.
What this actually models
A discounted exit. The default sells at 95% of ARV, not 100%. Houston runs about 60 days on market with roughly 4.9 months of inventory — five months at full ask is a fantasy you pay for later, and it is the single most common way a flip pro-forma lies.
The tighter of two loan constraints. Hard money lends against cost and against ARV, and the smaller number wins. Most calculators only apply one, which quietly overstates leverage and understates the cash you need at closing.
Interest on a drawn balance. Rehab funds release over the project, so charging full-balance interest from day one overstates the cost. This averages the opening draw against the full loan.
The clock. The last table prices the same deal at six through fifteen months so you can see what each month of sitting unsold actually costs. For most Houston deals it is the difference between a good year and a wasted one.
And when nothing works. If no purchase price clears your target, it says so rather than printing a small number that looks like an answer. That case means the rehab, the carry, or the exit assumption has eaten the deal — change the deal, not the offer.
Pairs with the Rent vs. Flip Underwriter — when a flip does not clear, the next question is whether the house pays as a rental instead.